CURRENT BEARISH SCENARIO!!!
A bullish ABCD pattern is formed in Hour TF which would determine the target that could be achieved by the Bullish shark pattern.
ABCD pattern
AB = 5169- 4911 done in 23 Hrs
C = 5030 = 50% retr of AB
Then retr for D are,
100% = 4911 - Done
161.8% = 4837.46
200% = 4792.
The above retracements coincides with that of Bullish Shark Pattern also and the H&S pattern
Any of these retr must be done within 23 Hrs as the wave AB has taken 23 hours which gives almost 3 days in full.
Weekly perspective:
The Maximum retracement that could happen in the Bullish Shark Pattern is 4675-4650 - which would almost reach the bottom of the developing Falling Wedge in Day charts.
This would also gather support at the weekly channel at 4665-75 The pink bottom line in the chart below - if the low is registered this week and if the low is registered next week it would reach 4650.
CURRENT BULLISH SCENARIO:
Considering the Nifty Day chart a Huge Bearish Crab Pattern is developing
Considering the CRAB pattern:
XA = 5702 - 4720
B = 5169 - (approx)44.7% retr of XA
Current C = 4911 = (approx) 61.8% retr of AB.(4720-5169)
The CRAB ratios are as follows,
Once XA is fixed and B retraces to 44.7% of XA then the retracements of C&D are expected to be as follows:
| AB/BC/CD |
| 0.447/0.382/1.618 |
| 0.447/0.382/2.000 |
| 0.447/0.382/2.240 |
| 0.447/0.382/2.618 |
| 0.447/0.382/3.140 |
| 0.447/0.382/3.618 |
| 0.447/0.447/1.618 |
| 0.447/0.447/2.000 |
| 0.447/0.447/2.240 |
| 0.447/0.707/2.240 |
Now, AB is over at 44.7% of XA @ 5169
BC = approx 61.8% (4891) - currently at 4911.
So If the Low holds or the low at 4860-75 holds (approx 70.7%)retr, then the
D is likely to retrace to a min upto 1.618 which = 5158.
This 5158 almost coincides with the Month Lema at 5167.
So the deciding factor would be below 4850 NS is likely to reach 4650 and Holding above 4875 -4910 likely to retrace to the month Lema.
16 comments:
Hi..Satheesh,
You have presented a very balanced bull/ bear possibilities in the present context with invalidation points.
Initially for a few posts, suggest for the beginners the trading strategies based on these with invalidation points as SL.
Once a trader acquaints himself/ herself with these patterns, yours is a ready made work which will make it easy for them to use it "off the shelf".
Add in your educative materials, a selection of most applied patterns as a ready reference.
You have been persistent for a long time. And this patience of yours can only result in success.
Best wishes.
ilango
Namaste Ilango sir,
Thanks a lot for your valuable inputs. I feel honoured to have your comments. I shall implement the suggestions you have made.
Thanks again sir.
vasishtar vayal brahma rishi.God bless you
hi satheesh,
Good work here. Can you make your longer term charts clickable so that we can see some larger size images ?
Dear Satheesh,
First time visiting your blog from Ilango Ji reference.
Must say that you are too good in technicals which many traders lag. Sure, you would be converting your technical sense into reality of dollars. Increase the size gradually.
My best wishes and sincere appreciation for your good work.
Regards,
Bala.
Dear Satheesh,
Congrats and Thanks for your great guidance and technical analysis.
Prabakar
Satheesh
Marvelous work thank you for the charts and analysis.I will add your blog in my regular visiting blogs
Thanks a lot to all my well wishers. Thanks Jagannathan sir - :)
thanks GD,Bala, prabhakar and Joe.
GD,
Those are charts which are posted earlier in the blog. I have given the links of it above the chart - "Bullish Shark Pattern & Falling Wedges" from these links you can get the enlarged versions.
Dear Satheesh,
If i could ask, how you get the excel chart. I am getting realtime data in excel, but not able to produce a chart.
If possible could you kindly let me know how to produce chart in excel.
Thanks.
Prabakar
Hi Satheesh
Nice blog. You have a sharp eye for patterns. Not many can spot a pattern in a chart easily you need a trained eye. You have that gift. your work can help many traders.
Also remember what sir said
"Do only that comes naturally to you and never force anything and you'll find the results amazing."
Best wishes for your efforts.
Prabhakar,
I follow Ilango sir's method of platting charts. I do not have any realtime data feeder. I key in the data manually as sir does and develop charts using excel.
I plot the charts using the Chart wizard icon in the standard tool bar of excel.
sorry - *plotting charts
Thanks SAN
Thanks Satheesh.
All the best...
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